So the Bank of England cut its policy rate at its August policy meeting to 4%. This was very much what both we and the market had been expecting. However, the market did interpret the August meeting as being more hawkish than had been expected. And that was really because the Bank of England has revised up its near-term view of inflation.

It continues to expect inflation in the UK to peak at around 4% in the next couple of months. And alongside that, we had a much closer voting split amongst the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, such that the market interpreted that as maybe, from here on out, the Bank of England is going to be a bit more cautious, a bit more gradual when it comes to cutting interest rates.

Our view, however, remains unchanged. We are sticking with our more dovish call that the Bank of England will cut rates two more times this year, sequentially starting in November and December. And the main reason for that is that after September, we think that inflation will fall and quite rapidly, and therefore that will unlock, the ability of the Bank of England to really kind of play catch up in terms of interest rate cuts.

And secondly, because wage growth has come in weaker than the Bank of England expected, and therefore that should give them comfort that services inflation over the medium term should continue to come down. So our view remains that we expect rates here in the UK to end the year at 3.5%.