The Trump administration is reshaping the global landscape with bold policy moves that have stirred markets and exposed key vulnerabilities in the global economy. These policy upheavals, along with geopolitical tensions, have set the stage for uncertainty across global markets:
- Economic Outlook: Trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions are reshaping growth trajectories. Although the US labor market remains resilient, inflation pressures and policy uncertainty amplify recession risks. Globally, growth remains uneven as regions grapple with inflation and external challenges.
- Market Outlook: Market sentiment is headline driven, with volatility reflecting the uncertainty surrounding trade, fiscal policies, and monetary responses. Divergences across asset classes highlight the importance of portfolio diversification to mitigate risks during this turbulent period.
- Trade & Tariff Analysis: The escalation of tariffs to levels not seen since the 1930s is straining global supply chains and deepening trade imbalances. Could potential currency realignments and incremental policy shifts play a central role in shaping the next phase of international trade relationships?