Recent visits to global clients provided some context around the key questions that investors are asking heading into 2027, starting with: Is “one and done” a plausible Fed scenario? While the Fed could pause in October, we don’t think it is done hiking rates. Underlying U.S. demand remains very strong with real consumption tracking near a 4% annualized pace, while broader private domestic demand is also running at post-pandemic highs. Meanwhile, energy, trade, labor, technology inputs, and food are facing constraints that appear increasingly structural and geoeconomic. Finally, reduced interest-rate sensitivity on behalf of the broader economy does not justify easier Fed policy. If higher policy rates are transmitting through the economy less effectively, the Fed may need to tighten more forcefully rather than stopping.