Overview
As the 2024 US Presidential election begins to heat up, investors will be looking to see if historical election-cycle market trends continue and how to position their portfolios accordingly.
- The economy, especially the labor market, is crucial for election outcomes; strong economies tend to favor incumbents, but reelection chances have varied in the presence of a recession.
- Equity markets tend to show moderate gains during election years, while fixed income assets often outperform due to looser Fed policies.
- Policy uncertainty, which typically impacts both equity and fixed income markets, is usually high before elections but is expected to be lower in 2024 due to familiar candidates and established policies;
- We believe investors would likely do better to think beyond immediate volatility and focus on adapting strategies to position their portfolios for the medium- to long-term environment.
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