Overview
As 2023 comes to an end a US recession isn't in sight, yet economic conditions are uneven across the globe:
- The US economy has been able to absorb rate hikes and still post solid real GDP growth. Our base case for 2024 is a soft landing but if a recession does materialize, we think it would be a shallow one.
- The Eurozone is teetering on the brink of a winter recession. Economic activity is expected to struggle in early 2024.
- Although China's post-COVID rebound has disappointed, the economy is expected to moderate but still grow at a solid pace in 2024. Japan's growth will likely be supported by pent-up consumption demand, wage growth, and economic stimulus.