While the prospects of a more moderate AI buildout sent ripples through the markets last week, we do not expect the U.S. midterm results to derail growth going forward. As stated last week, our base case for the buildout is a slower-for-longer capex cycle (50% probability) where the AI-related contribution to U.S. GDP moderates slightly in 2027. Meanwhile, divided government also means that the use of executive actions could expand and lift tariff rates from about 10% to closer to 15%, thus potentially maintaining an inflationary impulse (see the following bullet on the October CPI print).