Third Quarter 2025 Outlook

Deceleration, Divergence & Diversification

By Mao Dong, Junying Shen, Michelle Teng, Xiang Xu, Aili Chen, Stuart Jarvis — July 16, 2025

As we move through the third quarter of 2025, investors are navigating a complex landscape shaped by several key challenges: evolving tariff policies that are reshaping global trade, diverging central bank strategies, and persisting positive stock-bond correlation dynamics. In this environment, the probability of a recession remains elevated, while U.S. fiscal debt continues to climb. At the same time, geopolitical tensions are adding to market volatility.

Despite these headwinds, there are meaningful opportunities for investors to consider. Our Third Quarter 2025 Market Outlook highlights five critical themes influencing the markets and seeks to identify compelling, actionable opportunities across major asset classes.

Portfolio Research

The Portfolio Research team conducts proprietary research, helping investors navigate asset allocation, portfolio construction, and evolving market landscapes.